Powell Q&A: We're not at the stage where bond rates need to be taken into policy | Forexlive
- We’ve watched the run-up in bond rates and they’re nowhere near a year ago. We will see where they settle
- We’ve all read decompositions on why yields have moved up but we think they’re about fewer downside risks and better growth (not inflation)
- We don’t guess, speculate or assume on fiscal policy
- Data has been stronger than expected in the inter-meeting period
- Some of the downside risks have been taken away
- Overall, we’re feeling good about economic activity
- We had one inflation report that wasn’t as good as hoped
- We will make a decision on rates in December when we get there
- Jobs report wasn’t terrible but was worse than expected
- The latest economic data has been strong
- Policy is still restrictive but we feel it is still restrictive and labor market has cooled a great deal and is essentially in balance
- We don’t need further cooling to achieve our goals
- Powell says there is no signal in the removal of the line about “gaining greater confidence”
- when we are at neutral, or close to neutral, we might slow the pace of rate cuts…something we are just beginning to think about
I think Powell is referring to 5% rates last October but I certainly wouldn’t say 10s are ‘nowhere near’ last year at this time.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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