Powell Q&A: We're not at the stage where bond rates need to be taken into policy | Forexlive

Powell Q&A: We're not at the stage where bond rates need to be taken into policy | Forexlive


  • We’ve watched the run-up in bond rates and they’re nowhere near a year ago. We will see where they settle
  • We’ve all read decompositions on why yields have moved up but we think they’re about fewer downside risks and better growth (not inflation)
  • We don’t guess, speculate or assume on fiscal policy
  • Data has been stronger than expected in the inter-meeting period
  • Some of the downside risks have been taken away
  • Overall, we’re feeling good about economic activity
  • We had one inflation report that wasn’t as good as hoped
  • We will make a decision on rates in December when we get there
  • Jobs report wasn’t terrible but was worse than expected
  • The latest economic data has been strong
  • Policy is still restrictive but we feel it is still restrictive and labor market has cooled a great deal and is essentially in balance
  • We don’t need further cooling to achieve our goals
  • Powell says there is no signal in the removal of the line about “gaining greater confidence”
  • when we are at neutral, or close to neutral, we might slow the pace of rate cuts…something we are just beginning to think about

I think Powell is referring to 5% rates last October but I certainly wouldn’t say 10s are ‘nowhere near’ last year at this time.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.



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