Outlook 2025: Nifty at 25K or 28K by the end of next year? What experts suggest | Stock Market News

Outlook 2025: Nifty at 25K or 28K by the end of next year? What experts suggest | Stock Market News


Nifty 50 target: The Indian equity markets remained resilient for a major part of the calendar year (CY) 2024, navigating through various challenges like sticky inflation, weaker-than-expected Q2FY25 earnings, general election outcomes, FII outflows, and geopolitical uncertainty.

The Indian benchmark indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, have delivered positive returns of 9 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively, in 2024 so far. Even more impressive has been the performance of the broader market, which outperformed the benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 index and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index gaining 24 per cent each.

However, towards the fag end of the year, the markets have come under selling pressure, declining 1.7 per cent in December so far after a 0.3 per cent fall in November and a 6.2 per cent decline in October. 

Nifty 2025 Target Predictions

This downtrend has led to many brokerages reducing their 2025 targets. Now most experts see the Nifty in the 25,000-28,000 range by next year. Here’s a look at their 2025 targets for Nifty 50.

Also Read | Can US Fed’s revised rate cut outlook accelerate FII outflows from India?

smallcase managers survey – Between 25,000-28,000

A recent survey by smallcase, which polled over 150 managers on its platform, revealed that over 50 per cent of them expect the Nifty 50 index to be in the range of 25,000-28,000 by the end of 2025.

Strategy – According to the survey, prominent investment themes for CY25 are expected to be Green Energy, IT, and Banking. The IT sector is likely to experience steady growth due to ongoing digital transformation and increasing global outsourcing trends. Similarly, the Banking sector is expected to benefit from better credit growth and steady asset quality. The survey also highlighted the increasing traction for value and thematic strategies in 2025.

“With market conditions favouring undervalued stocks and sectors positioned for recovery, value-focused strategies will appeal to investors seeking stable returns. Additionally, thematic portfolios aligned with emerging trends such as green energy, technology, and defense will continue to attract investors looking to capitalize on long-term growth drivers,” commented one smallcase manager.

Also Read | After 2024’s underperformance, will Nifty Bank outshine Nifty 50 next year?

ICICI Direct: 28,800

According to ICICI Direct, Nifty 50 is projected to reach the 28,800 mark by 2025. The brokerage noted, “In the journey of Nifty @ 50,000 by CY30, Nifty has achieved the milestone of 24,800 for CY24. After a volatile H2CY24, our traditional as well as statistical analysis depicts that the stage has been set to embark upon the next upmove towards 28,800 levels in CY25 while key support thresholds are placed at 22,000.”

Technicals The anticipated rally in the Nifty 50 is expected to be supported by a more favourable risk-reward dynamic. ICICI Direct highlighted a Rising Channel pattern that demonstrates increased buying demand at a higher support base. It expects the index to continue its northbound journey towards the upper band of the channel placed around 28,800 by CY25.

Jefferies: 26,600

Brokerage firm Jefferies has a relatively cautious target of 26,600 for the Nifty 50 index in 2025, implying a potential upside of 10 per cent from current levels. Jefferies noted that the one-year forward price-to-earnings multiple for the Nifty is trading above its five-year average, which aligns with anticipated earnings growth.

Also Read | Will Nifty 50 breach 25,000 level by 2024-end? Technical experts weight in

Jefferies emphasised a preference for large-cap stocks over mid-cap and small-cap names. According to the brokerage, the slowdown in the Indian economy is shallow and likely to end by the first half of 2025. “A pick-up in government spending, improved liquidity, and a low base of the previous year will result in GDP growth picking up. This will also come as a relief for corporate earnings,” the brokerage stated.

Goldman Sachs: 27,000

Global brokerage Goldman Sachs has projected the Nifty 50 to reach 27,000 by the end of 2025. The brokerage’s outlook is supported by underlying earnings growth estimates of 13 per cent and 16 per cent over the next two years. 

The Nifty 50 had earlier touched a record high of 26,277 in September 2024 but has since fallen by 10 per cent.

Goldman Sachs expects Indian markets to remain range-bound over the next three months, with a near-term target of 24,000 before a back-loaded recovery as growth picks up. The brokerage commented, “While Indian stock markets currently exhibit external immunity, there is a cyclical slowdown in domestic growth. Weak earnings coupled with high valuations are expected to keep the markets range-bound in the near term.”

Despite the current cautious tone, the firm is optimistic about a recovery in the latter half of 2025 as GDP growth and corporate earnings strengthen.

Also Read | HDFC Bank vs ICICI Bank: Which private sector lender to choose in long term?

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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