Budget 2025: Apurva Sheth of SAMCO shares investment strategy amid volatility, expects market to recover post-budget | Stock Market News
Union Budget 2025: As the Union Budget approaches, Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research at SAMCO Securities, shares his insights with Mint regarding Nifty 50 trends before and after Budget day, the sectors and stocks he is optimistic about, the fiscal deficit, and the substantial geopolitical and global economic shifts following Trump 2.0.
Edited excerpts:
Amid the volatile Indian stock market, what segment (s) are you bullish upon?
We like defensives like Pharma and FMCG which generally tend to do well in a downtrend. We also like Large-cap category as a whole, as it has underperformed the small-caps for a long time and seems like they (Large-caps) are likely to play catch up. We would also recommend investors to add gold and silver to their portfolios as a hedge against any volatility going ahead.
Dalal Street is yet to witness a pre-budget rally. Is it possible, or do bulls need to wait for the post-budget rally?
Markets have generally remained subdued a week before the budget. Nifty 50’s average returns one-week prior budget is -0.46% since 2010. However, the returns of Nifty 50 one week after budget has generally been positive at 1.35%. In the backdrop of recent fall, we expect that once the uncertainty gets cleared the markets should bounce back.
Will the Government of India be able to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.5% in FY26, or will there be some surprise in Budget 2025?
The Fiscal Deficit estimate of the government for FY25 was 4.9%. It seems that the government will be able to restrict itself within this target. However, for FY26 government had set an aggressive target of getting the deficit down to 4.5%. This seems a bit challenging given the problem of slowdown in growth and political compulsions of distributing freebies to win elections.
Thankfully, there is only one state election in Bihar scheduled later in November 2025. Hence, there is less burden to introduce new freebies but even delivering existing ones without increasing the deficit will be an uphill task.
Which sectors will likely be key focus areas in the upcoming Union Budget?
The government will continue to focus on capital expenditure and augment the capex outlay from ₹11.11 lakh crore it did in the current fiscal to at least ₹12 lakh crore or higher for FY26. Its pet themes of infrastructure, railways, defence etc. are likely to be in focus this budget.
Please mention some stocks in the sector you are bullish upon.
We prefer stocks like Dabur, HUL, ITC, Lupin and Sun Pharma.
Are you expecting significant geopolitical and global economic changes after Trump 2.0?
Within 10 days of assuming the office President Donald Trump have announced closer to 50 executive decisions. The Trump Rhetoric continues. In the normal course, the market awaits move from the US Federal Reserve but today, the President Trump kept the US Fed guessing and, in that process, it kept rates unchanged and decided to follow how the things take share in the new regime over next one quarter before taking any decision on the interest rate front. Trump’s biggest poll promise of ending two-year old
Russia-Ukraine war, if materialises, it will be a big boon for the markets. However, the policy measures he has pronounced so far, are expansionary in nature and could stoke inflation, which may further worsen situation for the Fed to cut the rates.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.
