The NZD/USD pair is trading near 0.5879, experiencing volatility as the market awaits the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. Expectations are leaning towards a significant rate cut, with a 50-basis-point reduction considered the baseline scenario and a 25% probability of a more aggressive 75-basis-point cut.
Adding to the uncertainty are pessimistic projections from the New Zealand Treasury, suggesting potential delays in economic recovery, further weighing on sentiment around the NZD.
Internally, the US dollar’s strength, fuelled by mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in December, continues to exert substantial pressure on the NZD. Since the US election, the dollar has emerged as a dominant force, benefiting from robust domestic factors, and overshadowing other currencies that lack similar support, leading to their devaluation. As a result, the NZD, particularly vulnerable, reflects this broader depreciation trend against the USD.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD
On the H4 chart of NZD/USD, the market corrected to the 0.5921 level. Today, a decline wave structure is forming at the 0.5858 level, marking the boundaries of the consolidation range. A downward exit from this range could indicate the potential for the wave to extend towards 0.5777. Alternatively, an upward exit may result in another corrective move towards 0.5944 before the price resumes its decline to 0.5777. From a technical standpoint, this bearish outlook for NZD/USD is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and sloping downward.
On the H1 chart of NZD/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.5875. Today, another decline wave towards 0.5777 is likely to develop. At this level, the wave is expected to exhaust its downside potential. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward.
