Focus on Euro Area HICP Inflation – Action Forex
In focus today
Today, in euro area we receive final October HICP inflation data. This will show drivers of inflation and allow us to calculate the “LIMI” indicator of domestic inflation, which has received great attention from the ECB lately.
In Sweden, the day begins with a speech from Riksbank’s Anna Breman at 8.15 CET, focusing on “Current monetary policy and the economic situation”. This follows several notable events since the 6 November decision, such as US election, higher-than-expected inflation for October, and significantly higher electricity prices, presenting various discussion points. At 10.00 CET, the Swedish National Financial Management Authority will present new forecasts on the economy and public finances.
Today, we also have a few ECB speeches as well as some BoE speeches including BoE Governor Baily.
Economic and market news
What happened yesterday
In the euro area, ECBs Lagarde highlighted the critical need for Europe to reverse declining growth to sustain its welfare provisions, increase defence spending and address climate change. Lagarde emphasized the necessity for bold economic policies to generate the required wealth for these purposes. She also focused on the urgency of adapting to a changing geopolitical landscape and regaining competitiveness and innovation. Lagarde also pointed out Europe’s vulnerability to trade wars due to its heavy reliance on trade, which makes up more than half of its economic output.
Equities: Global equities were higher yesterday, with European markets lagging behind the rest. We observed some elements of the Trump trade, though not nearly to the extent we witnessed in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Health care continued to underperform, while the materials sector experienced a slight recovery after several challenging weeks for the China-linked sector.
The VIX was marginally lower and appears to have stabilised around the 15 level, aligning with expectations given the current macroeconomic backdrop.
In the US yesterday, Dow -0.1%, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%, and Russell 2000 +0.1%.
Asian markets were broadly higher, while South Korea underperformed for the second consecutive day. US and European futures are higher this morning.
FI: The EUR swap curve saw some bearish flattening through the Monday session, which was characterized by being very limited on market moving news. The 2Y tenor was up some 5bp throughout the session, while the 10Y point rose 3bp. The Bund ASW-spread at -2.5bp was roughly unchanged, similar to peripheral and EUR credit spreads.
FX: USD sold off against all currencies but the JPY to start the week. Commodity currencies, NOK, AUD and CAD gained the most on Monday. EUR/USD rose towards 1.06, EUR/SEK traded around 11.60 and EUR/NOK around 11.70.
